Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 05/0914Z from Region 3182 (S17E72). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 04/2111Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 05/0817Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 05/1040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (08 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 154
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 154/152/152
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 017/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 010/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20

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