Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 02/0621Z from Region 3176 (N19W29). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 02/0338Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3546 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 146
Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 02 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 005/005-014/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/35
Minor Storm 01/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/60/60
Space weather
