Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 14/2206Z from Region 3165 (S20W49). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (16 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 15/1332Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/0614Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Dec, 17 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 60/50/50
Class X 15/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 166
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 164/162/160
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 006/005-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
Space weather
