Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 13/1955Z from Region 3153 (S15W85). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 13/0603Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/1103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 369 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 20/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 153
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 152/148/144
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

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