Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 07/1304Z from Region 3157 (N16E19). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 07/2045Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 07/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 07/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2496 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 148
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 011/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 016/020-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/15
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 65/30/20

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