Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/0151Z from Region 3156 (N24E29). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 05/0710Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/0057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/1057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2607 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 150
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 010/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 006/005-009/012-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/40
Minor Storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 20/40/65
Space weather
