Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 03/1741Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 02/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17351 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 134
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/20

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