Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 02/0920Z from Region 3156 (N25E63). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1059 km/s at 02/0712Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/0217Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8776 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (05 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 124
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 018/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 011/012-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 45/30/20

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