Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 29/1358Z from Region 3151 (S16W88). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 29/1532Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/2117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1709 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Nov, 01 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 108
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 018/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 018/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 016/022-017/025-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/60/50

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