Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (29 Nov) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 684 km/s at 28/1723Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 28/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/0252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (29 Nov, 30 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 107
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 012/015-013/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/50/60

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