Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 26/2243Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/2015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2404 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 107
Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 105/110/115
90 Day Mean 27 Nov 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 009/010-012/015-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor Storm 05/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/50/50

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