Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21/0342Z from Region 3149 (N22E10). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 21/0946Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 21/0103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 117
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 118/115/115
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 012/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/25
Minor Storm 20/05/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/30/40
space weather
