Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 20/0609Z from Region 3150 (N21W71). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 20/0242Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 20/1619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 20/1629Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 119
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 120/125/125
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 020/026-012/015-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/20
Minor Storm 30/20/05
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 70/60/30
space weather
