Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 19/1256Z from Region 3150 (N22W55). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 19/0930Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 19/1001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 115
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 019/030-020/026-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/35
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 70/70/50
Space weather
