Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 17/0928Z from Region 3140 (N23W0*). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (18 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 17/1454Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 16/2335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 261 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (19 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 15/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 119
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 118/118/118
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 009/010-014/018-020/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/40
Minor Storm 10/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/60
space weather
