Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 14/1340Z from Region 3140 (N25W62). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 13/2300Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/1136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Nov, 16 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (17 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 45/45/35
Class X 15/15/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 142
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 142/138/132
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/20

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