Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 347 km/s at 09/2340Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1456Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 10/1917Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1334 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (13 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 139
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 011/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 007/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/25/20

Space Weather