Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 09/2005Z from Region 3140 (N26E03). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 09/1241Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/2359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 484 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 138
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 135/135/140
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 011/010-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/25

Space Weather