Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2022

A. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/1702Z from Region 3141 (N14E25). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class or X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 08/0652Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/0003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0906Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 364 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Nov, 10 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 132
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 010/012-011/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/45/35

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