Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 06/1727Z from Region 3141 (N15E50). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 06/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8981 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 131
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 007/008-011/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/40
Space weather
