Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/0723Z from Region 3136 (S08E09). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 03/2023Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 03/0937Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 03/1507Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2584 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Nov, 05 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 125
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov NA/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 017/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 016/022-021/030-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 65/70/50