Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 02/0214Z from Region 3135 (N26E00). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 02/2045Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/1647Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 02/1833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6466 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 130
Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 130/130/135
90 Day Mean 02 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 084/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 011/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 010/012-008/012-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/40
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/55/65
Space weather
