Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 31/2227Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1783 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 128
Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 01 Nov 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 108/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 011/010-008/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/30
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 45/25/40

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