Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/2029Z from Region 3135 (N27E65). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 565 km/s at 28/1942Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 28/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 28/1419Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (31 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 129
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 128/128/125
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 017/020-018/028-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 65/70/50
Space weather
