Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 27/0126Z from Region 3133 (N26E46). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 27/2017Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/1725Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/1839Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (29 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (30 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 130
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 083/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 008/008-014/018-019/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/35
Minor Storm 10/25/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/60/55
Space Weather
