Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 26/1243Z from Region 3133 (N26E60). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 25/2247Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/1940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (28 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (29 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 122
Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 120/118/118
90 Day Mean 26 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 172/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 008/010-010/014-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/35
Minor Storm 05/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/50/60
Space Weather
