Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 16/1606Z from Region 3123 (N27W68). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 606 km/s at 16/1309Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2131Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 808 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 119
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 120/115/115
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 35/15/15