Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 15/1432Z from Region 3112 (N23W0*). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 15/2013Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 14/2243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 115
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 115/110/112
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 011/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 45/15/15
Space weather
