Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 11/0842Z from Region 3112 (N22W54). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 11/0419Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4649 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 150
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 150/150/146
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 009/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/10

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