Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 09/1427Z from Region 3112 (N22W28). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 09/1758Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 161
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 017/020-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/15/30
Minor Storm 20/05/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/25
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 40/20/20
Space weather
