Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 24/1607Z from Region 3107 (S25E28). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 24/1407Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 838 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 147
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 148/152/155
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 011/015-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/15

Space weather