Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 23/1810Z from Region 3110 (N16E72). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 23/2032Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/0721Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 372 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 146
Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 146/142/148
90 Day Mean 23 Sep 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 014/018-011/015-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 30/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/25

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