Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 22/1134Z from Region 3105 (S17E32). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 21/2108Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 420 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Sep) and unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 137
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 138/130/130
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 016/020-013/015-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/40/35
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/35/30

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