Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/0702Z from Region 3107 (S24E60). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 21/0637Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/1014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 21/0334Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 409 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Sep), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (23 Sep) and unsettled levels on day three (24 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 137
Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 140/138/130
90 Day Mean 21 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 010/010-016/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/45/40
Minor Storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/45/35
Space weather
