Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/1122Z from Region 3102 (S26W26). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 19/2250Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/1735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 137
Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 140/140/138
90 Day Mean 20 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-010/012-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/45
Minor Storm 01/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/30/45
Space Weather
