Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 17/1339Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 17/2022Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 17/1823Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/2005Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 17/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 275 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (20 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 132
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 130/125/125
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 012/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 30/10/10
Space Weather
