Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 16/0758Z from Region 3078 (S23W18). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 15/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4862 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Aug), active to severe storm levels on day two (18 Aug) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (19 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 129
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 130/125/125
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 018/026-039/056-022/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/25
Minor Storm 25/35/35
Major-severe storm 05/50/25
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/01/05
Minor Storm 15/05/15
Major-severe storm 50/90/75
