Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/2306Z from Region 3068 (S15W83). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 08/0217Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 07/2209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1641 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 113
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 112/112/112
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 020/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 023/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 014/016-010/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/50/40
