Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/1805Z from Region 3057 (N17W91). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 702 km/s at 23/0236Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 23/0231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 23/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 702 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 111
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 108/108/106
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 009/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 35/25/20