Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 18/2354Z from Region 3058 (N14E16). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 19/1204Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 19/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 19/0727Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 305 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (21 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (22 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 144
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 013/018-017/022-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/45/45
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/70/70
