Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 July 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. 3053 (N15E35). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 08/0928Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 08/0120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 07/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 130
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 132/132/130
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/15/15