Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 July 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/0356Z from Region 3053 (N15E59). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 356 km/s at 05/2234Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/0739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0701Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (09 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 115
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 120/120/130
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 012/014-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/40/15