NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C6/Sn
event at 22/1828 UTC from Region 9511 (N10E25). Regions 9503
(N17W46). 9504 (N09W42), and 9509 (S09W45) all produced minor
activity during the period. The rest of the sun was mostly quiet and
stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible
during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the first half
of the forecast period and then is expected to return to moderate to
normal levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 204
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun  205/200/195
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  010/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  008/010-008/010-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01