NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 19 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels. Isolated,
optically uncorrelated, low-level C-class x-ray flares occurred. An
optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity
650 km/sec) occurred at 19/0335 UTC. Regions 9503 (N15W07) and 9506
(N18E20) each possessed a minor degree of magnetic complexity, but
were stable through the period. The remaining regions were
simply-structured and stable. New Region 9509 (S10W03) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods early on the first day.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 195
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  190/190/190
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  025/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  010/012-007/010-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01