NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 June 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Jun 15 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was high due to an M6/1n flare at 1013 UTC from Region 9502 (S25E32). The event was associated with a CME that was observed to enter the LASCO/C2 field of view at 1031 UTC. The CME was directed mostly to the southeast but a portion of it appeared to cross the solar south pole. Region 9502 is not showing growth, but it does have an east-west inversion line and continues to produce occasional flares. A subsequent impressive CME was observed on the west limb in LASCO/C2 images at beginning at 1648 UTC. There were no obvious disk or x-ray signatures, implying that the CME originated from behind the west limb. Regions 9503 (N15E46) and 9504 (N07E51) are currently the largest sunspot groups on the disk but were quiet and stable. Region 9503 is developing some magnetic complexity. New Region 9507 (N13E26) emerged on the disk today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9502 and 9503 are the most likely candidates for moderate or higher level activity. There is a slight chance for a major flare event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to slightly active. Solar wind observations suggest that the activity originated from enhanced density and interplanetary magnetic fields during a solar sector boundary crossing. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began today at 1750 UTC. The event appears to have originated from today's behind-the-limb event. The flux levels are rising slowly, with a peak flux as of forecast issue time of 23 PFU. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase to mostly active is expected on the second day in response to possible effects from the partial halo of 14 June as well as possible effects from today's partial halo (associated with the M6 flare). Mostly unsettled levels are expected to prevail on the third day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime around 15/2400 UTC. III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun Class M 65/65/65 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 99/10/10 PCAF in progress IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Jun 197 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 200/200/195 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 171 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 010/010-020/020-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/35 Minor storm 15/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/15/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/35/30 Minor storm 15/25/15 Major-severe storm 05/20/10
