NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 9 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 09 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Overall, solar
activity has increased since the previous period, as several regions
produced C-class events and optical sub-flares. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C7 at 08/2324 UTC. Region 9494
(S08W44) has shown rapid growth over the last 24 hours and is
currently a 21 spot Dao group with a beta-gamma magnetic
classification. There are currently eleven spot groups on the disk.
Region 9496 (N09W36) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. Region 9496 is capable of producing isolated M-class
events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to mostly unsettled conditions
with isolated active period occurring at 09/0600-0900 and 1800-2100
UTC. The increased geomagnetic activity appears to be the result of
interaction with a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on the first day of the period due to a coronal hole
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 177
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun  180/185/185
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01