NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 26 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 26 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9468 (N06W02) continued
to produce small C-class subflares, the largest being a C2/Sf at
25/2210 UTC. Other disk regions were relatively quiet. New Regions
numbered include 9473 (N12E12), 9474 (N18E53), and 9475 (N17E71).
All are small and magnetically simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated low-level M-class flare remains possible
from Region 9468.  Additional C-class activity is likely.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 May 147
Predicted   27 May-29 May  145/140/140
90 Day Mean        26 May 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  015/015-010/015-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01