NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9455 (S17W38) produced an M1/1n flare at 15/0300 UTC associated with
Type II and IV radio sweeps and a CME, which did not appear to be
Earth-directed. Region 9455 showed no significant changes and
maintained a minor degree of magnetic complexity. Minor spot
development occurred within Region 9454 (N12E05), which also
possessed minor magnetic complexity. New Region 9461 (N15E76)
rotated into view. It appeared to be the return of old Region 9433,
which produced major flares during its previous two rotations. An
impressive eruptive prominence and associated CME occurred from
beyond the northeast limb (to the east of new Region 9461) late in
the period. A long duration C-class X-ray enhancement was associated
with the prominence eruption.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9455 and 9454 appear capable of
isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the second half of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux is expected to reach high levels during the first half
of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 142
Predicted   16 May-18 May  150/160/170
90 Day Mean        15 May 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  012/015-012/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01