NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 12 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 12 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Several C-class events were observed. The largest of these was a
C5/Sf flare at 1210 UTC from Region 9454 (N13E46). Region 9454 is
currently the largest sunspot group on the disk and has some
magnetic complexity. Region 9455 (S16E03) grew steadily during the
past  24 hours and produced the majority of today's C-class events.
Newly assigned Region 9456 (N06W04) emerged on the disk during the
past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
during the next three days from any of regions 9454, 9455, or 9456.
Of these, Region 9455 appears to be the best candidate for continued
flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Unsettled to active levels predominated most of
the day, but the period from 0900-1500Z saw minor storm levels at
mid-latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours.
Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail during the second and
third days.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 138
Predicted   13 May-15 May  140/142/144
90 Day Mean        12 May 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  025/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  015/015-012/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05