NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 11 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 11 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Three
C-class flares occurred including a C1 at 0717 UTC, a C1/Sf from
newly assigned 9455 (S18E17) at 1006 UTC, and a C3 apparently from
9455 at 2022 UTC. New Region 9455 grew quickly on the disk to a
D-type sunspot group and appears to have a weak delta configuration.
Region 9454 (S18E17) continues to be the largest group on the disk
at 430 millionths. The group was not observed to produce any flares,
but did exhibit frequent plage fluctuations throughout the day. It
appears to have a simple beta magnetic configuration. An 18 degree
filament near S11E14 disappeared sometime between 0507 UTC and 1314
UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from either of Region 9454 or Region 9455.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 137
Predicted   12 May-14 May  140/145/150
90 Day Mean        11 May 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  023/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  007/008-007/009-007/009
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05